ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Tests $4,250 as Hike Odds Surge

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on June 8 (Monday), spot gold came under pressure as FED rate-hike expectations increased and the USD continued to strengthen. Prices briefly touched around USD 4,268 per ounce during the session.

On June 9 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold traded around USD 4,327.50 per ounce. The market remains in low-level consolidation, with prices potentially retesting the USD 4,250 level during the day.

Global Headlines

FED Hike Odds Hit 71.3%

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price a 98.1% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in June, while the chance of a 25bp rate cut stands at 1.9%. By December, the probability of no change is 28.2%, while the chance of at least one 25bp rate hike has risen to 71.3%.

Household Financial Expectations Turn Weaker

The New York FEDs May 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations showed softer short-term inflation expectations, while medium- and long-term inflation views stayed unchanged. Labor market expectations weakened, with rising unemployment concerns, lower job-finding confidence, and deteriorating views on credit access, household finances, and debt delinquency.

Trump Predicts Iran Victory Soon

Trump said the US could achieve “total victory” over Iran within the next two weeks. He said talks are still ongoing and that Iran wants a deal. According to Trump, Iran is willing to accept key US conditions, including not possessing nuclear weapons. He also said oil prices may fall sharply once victory is announced.

Iran Says Talks Still Continue

Iranian President Pezeshkian said diplomacy and defense are both key pillars of national strength. He said Iran has neither left the battlefield nor the negotiating table. He stressed that national security and social stability remain top priorities, and Iran will not back down under external pressure or threats.

Israel Pauses Iran Retaliation Temporarily

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will not retaliate against Iran for now, as Iran has stopped its attacks. He warned that if Iran and Hezbollah resume attacks, Israel will respond with force. Netanyahu said he had delivered the same message to Trump and emphasized Israels right to self-defense.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold remains in a weak short-term structure, with 4,353 acting as the key resistance level. If prices stay below 4,353, downside pressure may continue, with support levels to watch at 4,268 and 4,230.

If gold moves back above 4,353, a corrective rebound may develop. In that case, the next upside levels are 4,395 and 4,430. Overall, gold remains in a low-level consolidation phase, with direction still being confirmed.

RSI has just touched the neutral 50% area and is showing signs of turning lower. This suggests short-term momentum remains weak. With markets reacting to FED rate expectations, USD strength, and Middle East negotiation progress, price action may remain uneven.

Disclaimer

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