Oil Price Outlook: Crude Rally Halted at Resistance– WTI Weekly Chart

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• Oil price rally vulnerable near-term while below key pivot zone at 60.06/45

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Oil prices rallied more than 19% off the June lows before failing at a key resistance last week and leaves the recent advance in a precarious position heading into the start of the week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the crude oil weekly price chart (WTI). Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

油价从6月份的低点反弹超过19％然后失败在上周的关键阻力位上，最近的进展在本周开始时处于不稳定的位置。这些是原油每周价格图表（WTI）的最新目标和失效水平。回顾我最新的每周策略网络研讨会，深入了解这种油价设置等。

Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly

油价图表 - WTI周刊

Notes: In my last Oil PriceOutlook we noted that the crude rally was, “approaching a critical resistance pivot we‘ve been tracking for months now at 60.06/45 and we’re looking for a reaction here.” Oil prices failed to mark a daily close above this threshold and the attempted breach above the monthly opening-range leaves the immediate rally vulnerable while below this key zone.

注意：在我的最后一次油价中我们看到了他指出，原油反弹是“接近一个关键阻力位，我们已经跟踪了几个月，目前为60.06 / 45，我们正在寻找这里的反应。”油价未能达到每日收盘高于此门槛和尝试突破每月开盘价区域时，在关键区域下方突然出现反弹势力。

Monthly open support rests at 58.15 backed by confluence support at the 50% retracement of the June advance at 55.75. Ultimately a break / close below 54.53 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. A topside breach above 60.47 would keep the focus on the upper parallel / yearly high-week close at 62.83 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately a weekly close above 63.68 would be needed to suggest a more significant advance is underway.

每月开盘支撑位于58.15支撑位汇率支撑位于6月份上涨的50％回撤位55.75。最终需要突破/收盘跌破54.53才能恢复更广泛的下行趋势。上方突破60.47将突破上行平行/年度高周收盘价62.83 - 寻找更大的反应IF。最终需要每周收盘价高于63.68才能表明正在进行更大幅度的上涨。

Bottom line: The immediate oil price advance is vulnerable while below confluence resistance at 60.06/47. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion to give way to a larger pullback in crude. Ill publish an updated Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on near-term price action. Review my Top 2019 Trading Opportunities for a look at the longer-term look at the Oil Outlook.

底线：即时油价上涨是脆弱的，而汇合阻力位于60.06 / 47以下。从交易的角度来看，这是一个减少长时间曝光/提高保护性止损的好地方。请注意可能的上行疲惫让位于原油的更大回调。一旦我们进一步明确近期价格行动，我会发布更新的油价展望。回顾我的2019年最佳交易机会，了解对石油展望的长期看法。

Oil Trader Sentiment (WTI)

石油交易员情绪（WTI）

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +1.12 (52.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示交易者是净多头原油 - 比率为+1.12（52.8）交易者的百分比很长） - 看跌看跌

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• Long positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 9.1% lower from last week

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• Short positions are 7.5% lower than yesterday and 10.0% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少7.5％，比上周增加10.0％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oilprices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易者净多头表明Oilprices可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前的定位和最近的变化相结合，使我们从情绪的角度看待原油 - 看跌的逆势交易偏差。