Gold Prices May Suffer if FOMC Undermines Dovish Expectations

GOLD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

黄金基本预测：熊势

• Gold prices have climbed over 11 percent in the past two months on dovish Fed bets

  黄金在温和的美联储投注中，过去两个月的价格已上涨超过11％

• The FOMC rate decision may catalyze a reversal if dovish expectations are not met

  如果未达到温和的预期，FOMC利率决定可能会推动逆转

• IMF publication of updated world economic outlook supports loose credit paradigm

  国际货币基金组织出版的最新世界经济前景支持宽松的信贷范式

Gold prices will have tunnel vision this week as their biggest concern will be the FOMC rate decision and commentary. The yellow metal‘s over 11 percent rise during the past 2 months may look increasingly overpriced if the central bank fails to meet or exceed the market’s comparatively more dovish expectations. Overnight index swaps are pricing in two rate cuts by the September meeting with odds of a third by year-end.

黄金价格本周将有隧道愿景，因为他们最关心的将是FOMC利率决定和评论。如果央行未能达到或超过市场相对更温和的预期，那么过去两个月黄金价格上涨11％以上的价格可能会越来越高。隔夜指数互换定价为9月份会议的两次降息定价，截至年底的概率为三分之一。

If the Fed fails to live up to market expectations – even if they announce a rate cut but have a less-dovish outlook– investors may perceive the Fed‘s action and commentary as relatively more hawkish. Gold’s appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset may then erode and cause capital to shift from the yellow metal to the US Dollar, as opposed to what we have been seeing since December on the chart below.

如果美联储未能达到市场预期 - 即使他们宣布降息，但前景不那么温和 - 投资者可能认为美联储的行动和评论相对更加强硬。黄金作为无息资产的上诉可能会侵蚀并导致资本从黄金转向美元，而不是我们自12月以来在下图中看到的情况。

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Gold Prices Sharply Rose After Federal Funds Futures Took a Hit

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Relative to 2018, the Fed‘s dovish pivot has not been without reason. Economic data out of the US has been tending to underperform relative to economists’ estimates and the trade war has negatively impacted producer sentiment. The IMFs recent publication of its updated world economic outlook strengthened the case for central banks adopting accommodative monetary policy.

相对于2018年，美联储的温和支点并非没有道理。相对于经济学家的估计而言，美国以外的经济数据趋于表现不佳，而贸易战则出现负面影响严重影响了生产者的情绪。国际货币基金组织最近公布的最新世界经济前景加强了央行采取宽松货币政策的理由。