Geopolitical Watch: Markets Weigh Iranian Intervention Risks
Quiet trading ahead of the holidays belies significant geopolitical tension in the Middle East that could spark sudden volatility in Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) and Safe Havens (Gold, CHF).
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Abstract:USD/JPY remains downtrend but is about to form a bullish harami candle pattern, suggesting an upward correction on the cards. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Once it clears 129.50, it could rally towards 131. After a round of US economic data, suggesting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin to hike rates in 25 bps sizes. Therefore, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened, so the USD/JPY is down 0.24%. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 129.92.

• USD/JPY remains downtrend but is about to form a bullish harami candle pattern, suggesting an upward correction on the cards.
• USD/JPY Price Analysis: Once it clears 129.50, it could rally towards 131.57 before turning neutral.
USD/JPY remains downtrend but is about to form a bullish harami candle pattern, suggesting an upward correction on the cards. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Once it clears 129.50, it could rally towards 131. After a round of US economic data, suggesting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin to hike rates in 25 bps sizes. Therefore, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened, so the USD/JPY is down 0.24%. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 129.92.
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The USD/JPY remains downward biased as the pair has remained below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 130.60. Friday‘s price action remains contained within the boundaries of Thursday’s high and low, opening the door for a bullish harami candlestick formation, also known as an inside day, in the regular bar chart jargon. Therefore, the USD/JPY could print a leg-up before resuming its downtrend.
Hence, the USD/JPY next resistance would be 130.00, followed by the confluence of the 20-day EMA and a downslope trendline around 130.60, which, once cleared, might send the USD/JPY climbing towards the January 24 swing high at 131.11. Break above will expose the January 18 high of 131.57.
As an alternate scenario, the USD/JPY could fall towards 129.49, Januarys 27 low. Once broken, the next support would be the weekly low of 129.02, followed by the YTD low at 127.21.
USD/JPY Key Technical Levels

USD/JPY



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Quiet trading ahead of the holidays belies significant geopolitical tension in the Middle East that could spark sudden volatility in Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) and Safe Havens (Gold, CHF).
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The US economy expanded at a blistering 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, shattering forecasts and handing the Trump administration a rhetorical victory. However, beneath the headline number lies a complex economic and political battlefield that is complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path.