Analysis-Rate rises pile pain on SME firms in U.S. and Europe

LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking turmoil.

伦敦（路透社）——美国和欧洲的中小型 (sme) 企业可能接下来会感受到快速利率上升的痛苦，分析师和投资者正在密切关注近期银行业动荡加剧的信贷条件收紧的影响。

Unlike large companies that typically issue fixed-rate debt and have little exposure to short-term rate fluctuations, SMEs rely on direct bank funding, so the effect is felt in real time.

与通常发行固定利率债务且几乎不受短期利率波动影响的大公司不同，中小企业依赖银行直接融资，因此可以实时感受到影响。

And while the exposure of SMEs to higher rates and the potential for default may have so far gone largely under the investor radar, especially since bigger companies have held up fairly well, some are on the lookout for any signs of strain.

尽管到目前为止，中小企业对更高利率的敞口和违约的可能性可能在很大程度上没有受到投资者的关注，尤其是在大公司表现相当不错的情况下，但一些人仍在寻找任何压力迹象。

“As liquidity drains, what seems like idiosyncratic little issues start to pop up,” said Brett Lewthwaite, global head of fixed income at Macquarie Asset Management.

麦格理资产管理公司固定收益全球主管 brett lewthwaite 表示：“随着流动性枯竭，一些看似特殊的小问题开始出现。”

Ratings agency S&P expects U.S. and European default rates to reach 3.75% and 3.25% respectively by September, more than double the 1.6% and 1.4% the same month last year.

评级机构标准普尔预计，到 9 月，美国和欧洲的违约率将分别达到 3.75% 和 3.25%，是去年同月的 1.6% 和 1.4% 的两倍多。

SMEs are critical to economies on both sides of the Atlantic, with the European Commission estimating they employ around 100 million people in the EU and account for more than half of the blocs economic output.

中小企业对大西洋两岸的经济都至关重要，欧盟委员会估计它们在欧盟雇用了约 1 亿人，占欧盟经济产出的一半以上。

The European Central Bank‘s latest Bank Lending Survey shows euro area banks reported a substantial tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to businesses in the fourth quarter of 2022, before the impact of this month’s bank stress.

欧洲央行最新的银行贷款调查显示，在本月银行压力的影响之前，欧元区银行报告称，在 2022 年第四季度对企业的贷款或信贷额度的信贷标准大幅收紧。

That was the largest change registered by the survey since the blocs 2011 debt crisis.

这是自 2011 年欧元区债务危机以来调查记录的最大变化。

The European Banking Authority (EBA) was not immediately available for comment.

未能立即联系到欧洲银行管理局 (eba) 发表评论。

In the U.S. the average rate that small businesses pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate.

jefferies 分析师估计，到 2022 年，美国小企业支付银行贷款的平均利率将从 5% 左右上升到 7.6%，到年中可能会达到 9.5% 左右。

Analysts note the latest U.S. Senior Loan Officer survey pointed to “significantly tighter” credit conditions for SMEs.

分析师指出，最新的美国高级贷款官调查显示，中小企业的信贷条件“明显收紧”。

“In the current deteriorating environment, big is beautiful and smaller companies are going to feel the most pressure from interest and energy costs, broken supply chains and a lower real disposable income from households,” said Generali Investments senior credit strategist Elisa Belgacem.

generali investments 高级信贷策略师 elisa belgacem 表示：“在当前不断恶化的环境中，大公司是美丽的，小公司将感受到来自利息和能源成本、供应链断裂以及家庭实际可支配收入减少的最大压力。”

Distress rises

苦恼上升

The iTraxx Europe Crossover index, measuring the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of junk-rated corporate bonds, has risen recently but is well below peaks seen during the COVID crisis.

itraxx europe crossover 指数衡量了一揽子垃圾级公司债券的投保成本，该指数最近有所上升，但远低于 covid 危机期间的峰值。

Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said that even with sharp rate rises, investor focus has been on companies that are in good shape and well positioned to handle higher borrowing costs.

zurich insurance group 首席市场策略师 guy miller 表示，即使利率大幅上升，投资者的关注点仍然是那些状况良好且能够很好地应对更高借贷成本的公司。

“But when you think of all the smaller and medium-sized companies in Europe and U.S. that are dependent on bank financing, revolvers (a type of bank facility), and often even on owner financing, funding is becoming a major issue,” he said.

“但当你想到欧洲和美国所有依赖银行融资、循环贷款（一种银行贷款），甚至经常依赖所有者融资的中小型公司时，资金正成为一个主要问题，”他说。

British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and rising Bank of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable.

受增长疲软、两位数通胀和英格兰银行利率上升影响的英国中小企业被视为特别脆弱。

BoEs inflation fight continues https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-BOE/mopakwyzqpa/chart.png

英国央行的通胀斗争仍在继续 https://www.reuters.com/graphics/britain-boe/mopakwyzqpa/chart.png

UK corporate distress levels accelerated in the quarter to February to their highest since June 2020, an index compiled by law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges shows.

weil gotshal & manges 律师事务所编制的一项指数显示，英国企业困境水平在截至 2 月的季度加速上升至 2020 年 6 月以来的最高水平。

European SME‘s distress on the rise European SME’s distress on the rise https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgpdkjbwovo/chart.png

欧洲中小企业的困境加剧 欧洲中小企业的困境加剧 https://www.reuters.com/graphics/global-markets/lgpdkjbwovo/chart.png

Another recent survey by Manx Financial Group showed that 22% of UK SMEs that needed external finance over the last two years were unable to get access due to the higher cost of funding, processing times, and lack of flexibility.

manx financial group 最近的另一项调查显示，过去两年需要外部融资的英国中小企业中有 22% 由于融资成本较高、处理时间长和缺乏灵活性而无法获得融资。

Manx Financial Group CEO Douglas Grant said while many SMEs had locked in rates for a fixed period, to limit exposure to further rate increases, others had not.

manx financial group 首席执行官道格拉斯·格兰特 (douglas grant) 表示，虽然许多中小企业已在固定期限内锁定利率，以限制进一步加息的风险，但其他企业则没有。

Small businesses are counting on todays rise in the base rate to be the peak, as the Bank of England predicts a steeper than anticipated fall in inflation, even following the unexpected rise we saw earlier this week.

小型企业指望今天的基准利率上升达到顶峰，因为英格兰银行预测通胀下降幅度超过预期，即使在我们本周早些时候看到的意外上升之后也是如此。

In response to the most recent BoE rate increase, Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) National Chair Martin McTague said “inflation is exacting huge tolls on small firms, who are even more exposed to spiralling input costs than large businesses”.

针对英国央行最近的加息，小企业联合会 (fsb) 全国主席马丁·麦克塔格 (martin mctague) 表示，“通货膨胀给小企业造成了巨大损失，它们比大企业更容易受到不断上升的投入成本的影响”。

“The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of small businesses who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure,” McTague added.

麦克塔格补充说：“政府需要证明，它是站在那些感到压力大、利润压力巨大的小企业一边的。”

Hard times

困难时期

Meanwhile the rate of small business loan approval at big U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online financing platform for small businesses Biz2Credit.

与此同时，小型企业在线融资平台 biz2credit 表示，2 月份美国大型银行的小型企业贷款审批率连续九个月下降，小型银行的商业贷款审批量也有所下降。

Small U.S. banks have seen a $119 billion exodus in recent weeks as depositors took fright after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

最近几周，由于储户在硅谷银行倒闭后惊慌失措，美国小型银行的资金外流了 1190 亿美元。

Biz2Credit CEO Rohit Arora said he expects it will now become even harder for small businesses to secure capital, with the biggest challenge that rates stay higher for some time.

biz2credit 首席执行官罗希特·阿罗拉 (rohit arora) 表示，他预计小企业现在将变得更加难以获得资金，最大的挑战是利率在一段时间内保持较高水平。

“While its unlikely that rates will come down before next year, at least business owners will know this is the maximum they have to pay,” Arora said.

“虽然利率不太可能在明年之前下降，但至少企业主会知道这是他们必须支付的最高金额，”阿罗拉说。

Nevertheless, as financing costs jump and become harder to access, the risk of a spike in default rates is becoming increasingly tangible, analysts said.

然而，分析师表示，随着融资成本飙升并变得更难获得，违约率飙升的风险变得越来越明显。

“The weak hands are starting to be revealed,” said Macquaries Lewthwaite.

“弱手开始显露出来，”macquaries lewthwaite 说。

(Reporting by Chiara Elisei; Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Vincent Flasseur; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Alexander Smith)

（chiara elisei 报道；dhara ranasinghe 补充报道；vincent flasseur 图片；dhara ranasinghe 和 alexander smith 编辑）