【FXCM】12 August 2026 · Daily Market Update

📊 Gold / FX / Index Daily Update | 12 August 2026

Dear traders — todays market has one dominant macro event:

🔥 U.S. CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The report may reshape expectations for the Feds September decision and drive volatility across Gold, USDJPY, EURUSD, US indices, AI stocks and Crypto. BLS confirms the July CPI release for today, while Reuters consensus points to approximately 3.4% headline inflation and 2.5% core inflation year-on-year.

🟡 GOLD WATCH — XAUUSD

Quick View:

Spot Gold eased around 0.5% to approximately $4,369 on Tuesday but remains close to recent highs.

Key levels to watch:

$4,350 support / $4,400 psychological resistance / $4,300 deeper support

Why watch it？

Todays CPI can directly affect:

• Fed expectations

• Treasury yields

• USD direction

• Gold demand

Softer inflation may support Gold through lower yields, while stronger core CPI may increase rate expectations.

🔥 OIL WATCH — WTI / BRENT

Brent +1.4% → $88.91

WTI +1.3% → $83.20.

Key levels to watch:

Brent: $87 / $89 / $90-$92

WTI: $81 / $83 / $85

Oil remains highly sensitive to the Strait of Hormuz.

Fading optimism around a U.S.-Iran agreement supported prices again on Tuesday, and further negotiation headlines may trigger fast reversals.

💵 FX WATCH — USDJPY / EURUSD

USDJPY

The yen remained relatively stable following recent intervention-related volatility.

Key levels:

158.00 support / 159.00 pivot / 160.00 psychological resistance

A stronger CPI may push Treasury yields higher and support USDJPY, while a softer report may pressure the pair.

⚠️ The 160 area remains important because intervention risk may increase again.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded around 1.1541 on Tuesday.

Key levels:

1.1500 / 1.1550 / 1.1600

CPI is likely to be the dominant near-term USD driver.

📈 US INDEX WATCH — US30 / NAS100 / SPX500

Tuesday:

Dow -0.34%

S&P 500 -0.32%

Nasdaq -0.60%.

Key levels to watch:

US30 — 53,500-54,000

SPX500 — 7,700-7,750

NAS100 — 26,000-26,500

Higher Oil and CPI uncertainty encouraged some profit-taking.

Todays key question:

Does CPI lower Treasury yields and support growth stocks — or revive expectations for another Fed hike？

🤖 AI STOCKS WATCH — NVIDIA / ALPHABET / SEMICONDUCTORS

Nvidia remains one of todays major AI themes after announcing plans with large financial institutions to establish financing platforms aimed at mobilising more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure.

Tuesday close/current reference:

Nvidia: near $217.50, broadly flat

Tesla: +0.55%

Alphabet: -3.85%

Intel: broadly flat.

Key AI focus:

• Nvidia AI infrastructure financing

• Hyperscaler capital expenditure

• Alphabet selling pressure

• Intel funding and manufacturing expansion

• Treasury yields

• NAS100 reaction to CPI

AI infrastructure demand remains significant, but markets are increasingly examining how that investment is funded and whether returns justify the scale of spending.

🌏 ASIA INDEX WATCH

HKG33

Tuesday approximately -1.1% to 25,653.

Key levels:

25,500 / 26,000 / 26,500

JPN225

Approximately +0.2% to 67,108.

Key levels:

66,500 / 67,000 / 68,000

JPN225 remains particularly sensitive to both semiconductor sentiment and USDJPY volatility.

₿ CRYPTO WATCH — BITCOIN

Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,765, down approximately 0.4% from its previous close.

Key levels:

$63,000 support / $64,000 pivot / $65,000-$66,000 resistance

Why watch it？

Bitcoin remains linked to:

• USD liquidity

• Treasury yields

• NAS100 momentum

• Fed expectations

That makes todays CPI particularly relevant for Crypto volatility.

📌 TODAYS KEY FOCUS — CPI DAY

🇺🇸 8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. CPI, July

Consensus approximately:

Headline CPI MoM: +0.1%

Headline CPI YoY: 3.4%

Core CPI MoM: +0.2%

Core CPI YoY: 2.5%.

Also watch:

• U.S. Real Earnings

• Treasury-yield reaction

• September Fed expectations

• Gold reaction around $4,400

• USDJPY around 159-160

• Strait of Hormuz headlines

• Nvidia / AI infrastructure sentiment

• 2:00 p.m. ET — U.S. Federal Budget

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