The U.S Dollar had a difficult year & technical analysis is revealing something unexpected...
What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?
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Abstract:Two of the most systemic fundamental threats facing the financial system have eased this past week in the avoidance of a second US government shutdown
Australian Dollar Forecast –May Head Lower If RBA Jawboning Starts Anew
The Australian Dollar has just come through a rather more peaceful week than the preceding one but could fall once more if the RBA continues to highlight the benefits of a weaker currency.
Oil Forecast – Price Tied to Non-OPEC Supply Concerns, Lower Demand
Crude oil will take its price cues from the ongoing concerns on increased supply from non-OPEC sources.
British Pound Forecast – Sterling Struggles as the Brexit Clock Tick
The British Pound is just about keeping its poise against a range of currencies, especially a strong US dollar, with less than two weeks until PM May presents her Brexit deal to Parliament again.
US Dollar Forecast –Needs Sentiment Consistency to Set Lasting Trend
The US Dollar seesawed last week, reflecting the competing influence of fundamental cross-currents. Risk sentiment consistency may be needed for a lasting trend.
Gold Forecast – Gold Bull-Flag Formation Continues to Unfold Ahead of FOMC Minute
Developments coming out of the U.S. economy may continue to heighten the appeal of gold as the Federal Reserve further adjuststhe forward-guidance for monetary policy.
Equities Forecast – Dow Jones and DAX Hinged to Trade Wars, Potential Auto Tariff
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the German DAX will look to progress from the US-China trade talks and potential auto tariffs.

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The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.

What has happened to the U.S. dollar in 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?

SYDNEY — The Australian Dollar (AUD) has emerged as the clear winner in the late-2025 currency sweepstakes, surging to a 14-month high of 0.6727 against the US Dollar on Monday. The currency is being propelled by a perfect storm of hawkish domestic monetary policy and a historic realignment in global commodity markets.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady near 98.00, supported by a mix of technical recovery and external currency weakness. While markets await definitive signals on the Fed's 2026 cutting cycle, technical breakdowns in major peers are driving price action.

The divergence between Federal Reserve guidance and market pricing is widening as traders position for 2026, setting the stage for significant volatility in the US Dollar. While the Fed’s latest dot plot conservatively suggests a single 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, major financial institutions—including Goldman Sachs and Citi—are pricing in a more aggressive easing cycle of 50 to 75 basis points.