According to Rabobank, the GBP/USD is expected to fall back to 1.22 levels in the next three months.

According to analysts at Rabobank, the GBP/USD is expected to weaken over the next month due to a stronger US dollar. The bank predicts that the currency pair could fall to 1.22.

Key quotes:

“With the strengthening of the US dollar last Thursday, short selling intervention and deteriorating technical indicators, GBP/USD recorded its worst performance in two months. The bank believes that the rise in the pound since early March indicates that the pound price has already priced in many positive factors about the UK fundamentals.”

“The stronger-than-expected US labor market data released last week supported the stickiness of US wages and inflation risks. Therefore, the market has withdrawn some expectations of loose monetary policy by the Fed by the end of this year. The bank believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates before next year. The bank expects that over the next few months, the market will fully price in a rate cut in 2023, and the US dollar will gain some support as a safe haven from the risk of a US economic recession. Looking at a 3-month horizon, GBP/USD may fall to 1.22.”

“The bank expects that EUR/GBP will trade in the range of 0.87-0.88 throughout the summer.”